Best bets for UFC 262: Dariush vs. Ferguson

    Reed Kuhn is a Silicon Valley entrepreneur, and strategy and analytics consultant. He is the author of “Fightnomics: The Hidden Numbers and Science in Mixed Martial Arts,” the first book to quantify drivers and performance metrics in combat sports.

The “post-Khabib era” begins at UFC 262, with the vacant lightweight title up for grabs. But whether Charles Oliveira or Michael Chandler wins the belt, isn’t it just a placeholder until the Dustin Poirier-Conor McGregor trilogy is settled?

Regardless, given that Chandler has only one prior UFC appearance, the main event doesn’t meet the threshold for a data-driven prediction. Instead, we’ll look closer at the co-main event and search for betting leans further down the card.

Early prelims begin at 5:30 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPN+, prelims start at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+ and the main card is at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.

Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.

Lightweights: No. 9 Beneil Dariush (-170) vs. No. 5 Tony Ferguson (+145)

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